A novel methodology of internal assessment of uncertainty for three-dimensional neutronics/thermal-hydraulics system codes

The paper stresses how the internal assessment of uncertainty is a desirable capability for thermal-hydraulic system codes. This consists of the possibility of obtaining proper uncertainty bands each time a nuclear plant transient scenario is calculated. A methodology suitable for introducing such a capability into a system code is discussed. At the basis of the derivation of the code with (the capability of) internal assessment of uncertainty (CIAU), there is the uncertainty methodology based on the accuracy extrapolation (UMAE), previously proposed by the University of Pisa, although other uncertainty methodologies can be used for the same purpose. The idea of the CIAU is the identification and the characterization of standard plant statuses and the association of uncertainty to each status. One hypercube and one time interval identify the plant status. Quantity and time uncertainties are combined for each plant status. The RELAP5/MOD3.2 system code has been used inside the CIAU to show the applicability of the proposed method. The derivation of the methodology is discussed, and reference results of pressurized water reactor plant transients are shown bounded by the CIAU calculated uncertainty bands. Recently, a new activity has been started with the aim to extend the CIAU to the 3D neutronics/thermal-hydraulics coupled codes. (authors)