The advanced scenario analysis for performance assessment of geological disposal

First of all, with regard to the FEP information data on the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) developed by JNC, description level and content of the FEPs have been examined from various angles on the basis of the latest research information. Each content of the FEP data has been classified and modified by means of integrating descriptive items, checking detail levels and correlations with other FEPs, collating with the H12 report, and adding technical information after H12 report. Secondly, scenario-modeling process has been studied. The study has been conducted by evaluating representation of the repository system, definition of FEP properties, and process interactions based on the concept of the interaction matrix (RES format) which represents influences between physicochemical characteristics of the repository, followed by an experimental development of the actual RES interaction matrix based on the H12 report as the examination to improve the transparency, traceability and comprehensibility of the scenario analysis process. Lastly, in relation to the geological disposal system, assessment techniques have been examined for more practical scenario analysis on particularly strong perturbations. Possible conceptual models have been proposed for each of these scenarios; seismic, faulting, and dike intrusion. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified. (author)