Nuclear fusion as new energy option in a global single-regional energy system model

Is there a window of opportunity for fusion on the electricity market under 'business as usual' conditions, and if not, how do the boundary conditions have to look like to open such a window? This question is addressed within a subtask of the Socio-Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) programme of the European Commission. The most advanced energy-modelling framework, the TIMES model generator developed by the Energy Technology System Analysis Project group of the IEA (ETSAP) has been used to implement a global single-regional partial equilibrium energy model. Within the current activities the potential role of fusion power in various future energy scenarios is studied. The final energy demand projections of the baseline of the investigations are based on IIASA-WEC Scenario B. Under the quite conservative baseline assumptions fusion only enters the model solution with 35 GW in 2100 and it can be observed that coal technologies dominate electricity production in 2100. Scenario variations show that the role of fusion power is strongly affected by the availability of GEN IV fission breeding technologies as energy option and by CO2 emission caps. The former appear to be a major competitor of fusion power while the latter open a window of opportunity for fusion power on the electricity market. An interesting outcome is furthermore that the possible share of fusion electricity is more sensitive to the potential of primary resources like coal, gas and uranium, than to the share of solar and wind power in the system. This indicates that both kinds of technologies, renewables and fusion power, can coexist in future energy systems in case of CO2 emission policies and/or resource scarcity scenarios. It is shown that Endogenous Technological Learning (ETL), a more consistent description of technological progress than mere time series, has an impact on the model results. (author)