Russia-Turkey: A Relationship Shaped by Energy

Deepening ties in between Turkey and Russia in the energy sector prompt questions as to where the balance of power between the two countries lies, with the former relying heavily on the latter for its energy needs. In light of Europe's efforts to diversify its energy sources and of tensions in its relationship with Ukraine, Russia is building the South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea (through Turkish territorial waters). At the same time, Turkey is strengthening its position in South Stream's rival pipeline projects, which aim to supply the European Union with gas from the Caspian Sea region. This means there is a difficult balance between the two countries as they try to negotiate a compromise on the basis of several lines of economic interest. While Russia attempts to protect its European revenues, Turkey is trying to enhance its status as an energy hub between Europe, the Caucasus and the Middle East. As well as the major pipeline projects, the Turkish government and, increasingly, private Turkish operators are developing an energy partnership with Russia in a growing number of fields, including nuclear power. At first glance, this would appear to make Turkey more dependent on Russia. However, the strategic maneuvers surrounding competing regional pipeline projects could give Turkey more room for negotiation and allow it to mitigate its energy dependency. Lastly, the economic significance and the timescales of all these common energy projects explain the desire of the two countries to play down their contrasting political interests in the Middle East. (author)