Ozone layer, ultraviolet radiation and skin cancer

If the ozone layer is reduced, the fluence rate of carcinogenic UV-light from the sun will increase at the surface of the earth. Calculations based on the assuption that the carcionogenic process starts by absorption of UV-light in DNA in cells in the basal layer of the skin, indicate that a 1% reduction in the ozone level leads to a 4-5% increase in the incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer, i.e. the amplification factor is 4-5. However, light at wavelenghts above 310 nm, which is poorly absorbed by DNA as well as by ozone, seems to be carcinogenic. The amplification factor in South Norway is estimated to be about 2 or slightly less. The amplification factor decreases with increasing distance from the equator. The estimation is based on the action spectrum for mutation of cells in the basal layer of the skin, a spectrum similar to the action spectrum for carcinogenesis in mice, and to that for erythema in humans. The fluence rate of carcionogenic UV-light is probably more dependent on other climatic and environmental factors than on the ozone level. Thus, it was recently reported that the integrated yearly UVB dose measured several places in USA showed a decreasing tendency with time in the period 1974-1985