Long-term outlook of electric power supply/demand in China. Economic growth up to 2010 and its path to choose

Electric consumption in China increased at 7.9% per year between 1980 and 1992 and will expand at 7.8% per year on the precondition of real annual 8% GNP growth between 1992 and 2010 (9% per year between 1992 and 2000 and 7% per year between 2000 and 2010). Electric consumption in the residential and commercial sector will increase more rapidly than in the industry sector due to expanding possession of electric appliances at home because of higher income. The constraints of sustainable GNP growth will be environmental problems (SOX, NOX and CO2 emissions), availability of capital investment money which will amount to one trillion U.S. dollars to construct the infrastructures for power generation, transportation and distribution up to 2010. International payment balances will be a bottle neck for importing three million B/D of oil, one hundred million tons of coal and 13.5 million LNG equivalent tons in 2010. (author)