Assessment of wind forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model for a tropical site

This paper evaluates the performance of a NWP Model, NCMRWF Unified Model-Regional (NCUM-R), for wind forecasts at a tropical site. The study period extends for nine months from December 2021 – August 2022. During this study period, hourly wind speed and wind direction forecasts from the model are compared with respective observations at a single location. The performance of the model in forecasting wind speed and direction is seen to be season dependent. The mean absolute error in wind speed is between 1.5 m/s to 5.5 m/s, and for wind direction, it is found to vary between 650 and 950. The model performance can be improved by data assimilation, proper choice of parameterization schemes, using high resolution input data as well as increasing model resolution. (author)