Effects of climate change on the production and consumption of electricity in Finland

The purpose of this study was to use the latest knowledge about the greenhouse effect and its impact on electricity production and consumption in Finland and so to update the former study of Aittoniemi made at IVO in 1990. This research used the new climate change scenarios which were drawn up in the Nordic research project entitled Climate Change and Energy Production, financed by the Nordic Council of Ministers, and in the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change, SILMU. These scenarios have been specially made for Finland, and are thus more suitable than the former global models. The base scenario was chosen to be the year 2025 with no climate change, and the climate change-affected years studied were 2025 and 2100. The base scenario of electricity consumption and production took advantage of the scenario of Ministry of Trade and Industry made at the end of the 1980s. Some changes were essential, however, since the present development proves that some of the assumptions concerning power production forms will not be relevant in 2025. Based on the known dependencies between electricity consumption and temperature, impacts were calculated for each affected consumption sector: electric heating, household consumption and industrial consumption, process industry excluded. The total effect on the supply system was estimated with the KAPAS model, developed for capacity planning of Finland. According to the results, the effects of the projected climate change on the total consumption and production of electricity will be limited. The structure of both electricity consumption and production will remain rather similar, the most important changes applying to hydro power. (13 refs.)