An ex-ante evaluation of a White Certificates scheme in The Netherlands: A case study for the household sector

Increased efficiency of energy demand is generally recognized as a very cost-effective strategy to reduce energy requirements and the related environmental impacts (e.g. the greenhouse effect). In order to improve energy efficiency the use of innovative market mechanisms, such as the White Certificates (WhC), has been proposed. The basic idea underlying this policy instrument is that specific energy saving targets are set for energy suppliers or energy distributors. These requirements must be fulfilled in a predefined time frame. The focus of this paper is on the effect on energy efficiency improvement, on the behavior of the end consumers and the market of energy efficiency measures. Furthermore, we study the possible effects of WhC in The Netherlands by means of a theoretical analysis and an empirical bottom-up model. We compare concrete energy efficient technologies in terms of cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency improvement. In combination with existing Dutch policies for energy efficiency improvement in the built environment, the contribution of this innovative scheme could enhance the accomplishment of energy efficiency targets. In this paper, two packages of energy saving measures of a WhC scheme are studied for Dutch households. The costs of these technologies are estimated through the use of different discount rates, which imply overcoming of the market barriers through the use of the WhC. A scheme that includes all available technologies as flexible options appears as a realistic solution and can generate cost effectively up to 180 PJ primary energy savings and 4550 M Euro cumulative net savings in the year 2020, at a discount rate of 5%, under the precondition that the policy and administrative costs can be kept low