CO₂ emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

China announced its promise on CO₂ emission peak. When and what level of CO₂ emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO₂ emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO₂ emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of "no new policies", "13th five-year plan" and "additional policies". Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO₂ emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO₂ emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO₂ emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO₂ emission trend are discussed.