Simulation analysis by a model projecting world energy supply and demand over the very long term. A case study on China

In May 1994, China announced a plan to construct nuclear power plants with total output of 300 to 350 million kW by the year 2050, nine times that of the current nuclear power plants in Japan. In this study, simulations were made to see the effect of nuclear power plants on emission of carbon dioxide gas by using conventionally expected capability of nuclear power generation in China as BAU (Business As Usual) cases, namely 0.5 million kW in 2000, 11 million kW in 2030, 16 million kW in 2050 and 32 million kW in 2100, as well as using expanded cases of nuclear power, namely 160 million kW in 2030, 320 million kW in 2050 and 370 million kW in 2100. The current study estimated that the emission of carbon dioxide gas in China would be reduced by approximately 450 million tons in 2050 and 460 million tons in 2100 in the expanded cases of nuclear power in comparison with the BAU cases. (author)