Statistical estimation of potential work due to vapor explosion

A vapor explosion caused by molten fuel/coolant contact has the potential to threaten the containment integrity during a severe accident. Many analytical and experimental efforts have been performed to understand the explosion phenomena and to predict the amount of mechanical energy produced. However, it has been revealed from analytical studies that complex mechanistic models may not have been benefit. In this study, a set of simple models have been developed and a Monte-Carlo solution technique is used to calculate the probability distiributions for the amount of mixing, the slug velocity and the maximum conversion ratio. Also a brief sensitivity study was performed for several important input parameters which may have large uncertainties. (Author)