Analysis of Infiltration Uncertainty

In a total-system performance assessment (TSPA), uncertainty in the performance measure (e.g., radiation dose) is estimated by first estimating the uncertain y in the input variables and then propagating that uncertain y through the model system by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This paper discusses uncertainty in surface infiltration, which is one of the input variables needed for performance assessments of the Yucca Mountain site. Infiltration has been represented in recent TSPA simulations by using three discrete infiltration maps (i.e., spatial distributions of infiltration) for each climate state in the calculation of unsaturated-zone flow and transport. A detailed uncertainty analysis of infiltration was carried out for two purposes: to better quantify the possible range of infiltration, and to determine what probability weights should be assigned to the three infiltration cases in a TSPA simulation. The remainder of this paper presents the approach and methodology for the uncertainty analysis, along with a discussion of the results