Interleukin-10 as a Marker of Disease Progression in Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

Objective: To evaluate the plasma interleukin-10 (IL-10) levels in patients suffering from dengue hemorrhagic fever between 4 to 7 days of onset of disease and 24 hours after the first sample, to find out the association of plasma IL-10 levels with the outcome. Study Design: Analytical study. Place and Duration of Study: All major hospitals of Lahore, Pakistan, from August to November 2012. Methodology: Participants included 50 registered patients of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) aged between 15 - 50 years. Plasma IL-10 concentrations were measured on above stated day. Outcome was described as recovery and shock. Platelet count and hematocrit percentages were also recorded. Statistical analyses were done using SPSS version 19. A p-value 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Plasma IL-10 levels were found to be raised in DHF patients and were associated with fatal outcome (p=0.004). In recovered DHF patients, plasma IL-10 levels decreased after 24 hours (mean 26.54 ± 16.03 pg/ml) as compared to admission time (mean 74.39 ± 61.69 pg/ml) but in case of DHF patients suffering from shock, plasma IL-10 was found to be higher after 24 hours (mean 87.69 ± 7.77 pg/ml) as compared to levels at admission time (mean 42.56 ± 28.09 pg/ml). ROC curve analysis revealed a change (30 units pg/ml) of plasma IL-10 concentration, within 24 hours of admission, raised from the base line to be 105 times more critical for shock in DHF patients (100 percentage sensitivity and 71.4 percentage specificity, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Elevated plasma IL-10 is a potential predictor of disease severity and fatal outcome in DHF patients. (author)