Projected large flood event sensitivity to projection selection and temporal downscaling methodology

Large flood events, that influence regulatory guidelines as well as safety of dams decisions, are likely to be affected by climate change. This talk will evaluate the use of climate projections downscaled and run through a rainfall - runoff model and its influence on large flood events. The climate spatial downscaling is performed statistically and a re-sampling and scaling methodology is used to temporally downscale from monthly to daily signals. The signals are run through a National Weather Service operational rainfall-runoff model to produce 6-hour flows. The flows will be evaluated for changes in large events at look-ahead horizons from 2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070, and 2071 - 2099. The sensitivity of results will be evaluated with respect to projection selection criteria and re-sampling and scaling criteria for the Boise River in Idaho near Lucky Peak Dam. (author)