The costs of different energy taxes for stabilizing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: An application of the Gemini model

In the absence of policies to mitigate emissions of carbon dioxide, US emissions will grow substantially over the period 1990 to 2030. One option for mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions is to tax energy use. For example, fossil energy might be taxed according to its carbon content, heating value, or market value. Using a partial equilibrium model of US energy markets that combines detailed representation of technological processes with optimizing behavior by energy users and suppliers, the authors compare the costs of using carbon, Btu, and ad valorem taxes as instruments to implement a policy of emission stabilization. The authors also examine the differential impacts of these taxes on the mix of primary energy consumed in the US. The carbon tax induces the substitution of renewables and natural gas for coal and stabilizes carbon dioxide emissions at an estimated annual cost of $125 billion. The Btu tax induces the substitution of renewables for coal, but does not encourage the use of natural gas. The estimated cost of stabilization with the Btu tax is $210 billion per year. The ad valorem tax, like the Btu tax, does not encourage the substitution of natural gas for coal. It also causes a significant shift away from oil in comparison to the carbon tax. The cost of stabilizing emissions with the ad valorem tax is estimated at $450 billion per year