Factors in low-carbon energy transformations: Comparing nuclear and bioenergy in Brazil, Sweden, and the United States

Policies to address climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions might be made more effective if we can better understand the pathways by which transformative technologies become significant components of energy systems. Indeed, the central question of mitigation revolves around the scope of policy to influence or accelerate the diffusion of low-carbon technology. While market forces clearly influence technology deployment, understanding the longer-term and large-scale changes in the energy system requires a broader understanding of the relative influence of institutional, behavioral, and social factors. This paper presents the results of an interview-based, comparative case approach to investigating systematically the relative importance of these non-economic factors influencing technological change across technology and country contexts. We identified two low-carbon energy sectors (bioenergy and nuclear power) that underwent significant changes over the past 50 years in the energy portfolio of three countries: Brazil, Sweden, and the United States. We identified nine categories of factors that might contribute to these large technological transformations, and then evaluated, via interviews with sector participants in each country, which factors were viewed as being determinative or highly influential in the trajectory of that technology in their country context. We also draw out policy implications and directions for future research. - Highlights: ► Study of energy transformations in bioenergy and nuclear energy in Brazil, Sweden, and the US. ► Data include survey and 78 interviews across 3 countries and 2 sectors. ► Across all countries and sectors, domestic policy was seen as the major factor in transitions. ► Other key factors with more variance were technological characteristics and industry structure. ► Study adds empirical detail to understanding of relative weights of factors in energy transitions.