A GIS-model for predicting the impact of climate change on shore erosion in hydroelectric reservoirs

Shoreline erosion affects inland lakes and hydroelectric reservoirs in several ways. This poster described a vector-based geographic information system (GIS) model designed to predict changes in shore zone geometry, top-of-bluff recession, and eroded sediment volumes. The model was designed for use in Manitoba Hydro's reservoirs in northern Manitoba, and simulated near-shore downcutting and bank recession caused by wind-generated waves. Parameters for the model included deep water wave energy, and water level fluctuations. Effective wave energy was seen as a function of the water level fluctuation range, wave conditions, and near-shore slope. The model was validated by field monitoring studies that included repeated shore zone transect surveys and sediment coring studies. Results of the study showed that the model provides a systematic method of predicting potential changes in erosion associated with climatic change. The volume and mass of eroded sediment predicted for the different modelling scenarios will be used as input data for future sedimentation models. tabs., figs