New ideas for the uncertainty analysis methodology

The methodology of probabilistic safety analysis of nuclear power plants is discussed. A simple model was set up for testing the Monte Carlo method, which is most popular in deriving the fault tree. A new method is proposed for determining the error factor of probabilistic characteristics of secondary events in the fault tree. A rich regression model of the analyzed function of three variables, with eighty regressors in eight orthogonal blocks, was developed as a technical supplement to the procedure improvement suggested. (M.D.). 4 tabs., 21 figs