The impact of potential climate change commitment on six industries in the United States

This paper summarises a series of six workshops that estimated the effects of potential climate change commitments on six energy intensive industries. The six industries are: steel, chemicals, paper and pulp, aluminium, cement and petroleum refining. The climate policy commitments are assumed to apply to the US and OECD countries, but not to developing countries. The assumed commitments would produce a substantial reduction in industrial output and employment in the US and in other participating countries. Non-participating countries would experience economic gain in these industries. Global carbon emissions would be redistributed and may not decline. An increase in fossil fuel prices would not encourage US industries to substitute capital for energy to reduce emissions, which indicates that capital and energy are complements in these industries. (Author)