Decision support system for Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana

Highlights: • Presented quantitative decision support system for Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana. • Figured out number of dealers to be commissioned to achieve maximum LPG penetration. • Impact of maximum cylinder (subsidised) available per connection on dealers commissioned. • Maximum LPG penetration that can be achieved with number of connection given per week. • LPG connection to be given in every region of India every week over the policy timeframe. - Abstract: Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) is a flagship energy policy initiated by the government of India to provide women below poverty line (BPL) access to clean energy fuel, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). This policy has led to the empowerment of women and protection against health hazards. A decision support system (DSS) is proposed to quantitatively analyse the implementation of PMUY in real time. This approach is first of its kind for analysis of a national level energy policy. The system uses mixed integer linear programming approach to mathematically formulate the policy using input parameters, decision variables and their relationships. The DSS requires input parameters namely distributing capacity of a LPG dealer, subsidised cylinders available per connection, number of households, and LPG penetration required. We have analysed different scenarios varying the input parameters mentioned. The decision support system has deterministically found the number of dealers required and LPG penetration in a region projecting both BPL and aggregate household coverage. The system helps in making sound decisions based on quantitative modelling ensuring optimal implementation of the policy. This kind of decision support system can be formulated for various policies to make sound decisions based on strong quantitative evidences.