Isotopic content in high mountain karst aquifers as a proxy for climate change impact in Mediterranean zones: The Port del Comte karst aquifer (SE Pyrenees, Catalonia, Spain)

Highlights: • Water resources generated in the Port del Comte aquifer will decrease in the future. • Future system discharge during both the thaw and the low flows seasons will be lower. • Multi-model and multi-scenario used to assess isotopic content trends in groundwater. • The Isotopic content in groundwater (δ¹⁸O_GW) shows trends statistically significant. • Trends in δ¹⁸O_GW can be used as proxy of Climate Change impact in aquifer systems. The objective of this work is to characterize the impact of climate change in the karst aquifer of the Port del Comte Massif (PCM). Six regional climate models (RCMs) from CLYM'PY Project are used to analyse the magnitude and trends of changes on precipitation and temperature (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and how these changes propagate through the hydrogeological system as groundwater resources availability and the associated water isotopic content. The study uses the RCMs climate change forcings as input data to a combination of (1) a semi-distributed hydrological model for simulating the hydrodynamical response of the aquifer, and (2) a lumped parameter model for simulating the isotopic content in groundwater at the outlet of the aquifer. A mean decrease of 2.6% and 1.9% in yearly precipitation and a mean increase of 1.9 and 3.1 °C in average temperature is expected in PCM at the end of the 21st century in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This climate signal entering the hydrogeological system results in a mean decrease in recharge of 3.9% and 0.5% from rainfall and of 59.3% and 76.1% from snowmelt, and a decrease of 7.6% and 4.5% in total system discharge, but also generates an isotopic enrichment in groundwater discharge (δ¹⁸O_GW) of 0.50‰ and 0.84‰, respectively. Moreover, from a long-term (2010−2100) perspective, the mean trend in δ¹⁸O_GW is 0.7‰/100 yr and 1.2‰/100 yr for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, resulting in easily measurable annual lapse rates with the current analytical methods.