Status and prospect of non-proliferation activities of ISTC and STCU

This article examines the role of the International Science and Technology Centre of Moscow (ISTC) and the Science and Technology Centre of Ukraine in Kiev (STCU) in preventing proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) expertise and know-how of scientists and engineers from the Former Soviet Union countries. The Centres were created in the first half of the nineties, in the context of the collapse of the Soviet Union. This collapse raised very serious concerns: over the risk of former WMD scientists and engineers being recruited by States of concern or terrorist groups that wished to develop their own WMD capabilities and means of delivery; and the possibility that scientists and engineers would be driven to sell their knowledge, know-how or equipment in order to survive. Since the Centres' inception, the regional and international context has changed dramatically at both economic and strategic levels, in particular regarding non-proliferation and global security. Changes of a political and strategic nature in the former Soviet Union required the European Union to review its relationship with Russia, to reassess the importance of Central Asian Countries and the future of Ukraine as it is pulled between Russia and Europe. The Centres have had to adapt to these changes. The article draws from an evaluation of the Centres' non-proliferation activities, carried out by the authors between November 2006 and September 2007 at the request of the European Commission. Moreover, since completion of the mission, many events, important for the strategic relationships between E U, Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries occurred as the affirmation of Russia's regional leadership: its rearmament along with the stiffening of its relationships with western countries and some neighbours and closure to visitors; the Georgia-Russia conflict; and the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis. As CIS countries are more affected by the current economical crisis, their situation could get worse and have a political impact in particular in Russia and Central Asian countries. These new developments, which had already been outlined in the mission's report, may have a major impact on the future of ISTC and STCU. The authors have attempted to take them into account in the article, which goes beyond the outcome of the evaluation, and to project the ISTC and STCU experience into the future. It describes the objectives, the methodology, the findings and recommendations of the mission, and gives some thoughts and prospects on the current CIS context and the role of the Centres. The authors' mission took place in the context of the end of the programme of Technical Assistance to CIS countries (TACIS programme) and the definition and implementation of a new European Foreign Policy Instrument, the Instrument for Stability (IfS), as the development of the European Neighbourhood Policy. The evaluation mission was carried out in Brussels, Paris, Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and finally Georgia, through the audit of selected projects at the Centres and at the Institutes of the visited CIS countries. The evaluation drew also upon analysis of the answers to a questionnaire handed over to the Institutes and projects managers. IfS is now being implemented, and thoughts are ongoing on how to adapt the Centres to the new regional and international context, and how to draw from their experiences to manage other countries that raise proliferation concerns.