Psacoin level S intercomparison: An International code intercomparison exercise on a hypothetical safety assessment case study for radioactive waste disposal systems

This report documents the Level S exercise of the Probabilistic System Assessment Group (PSAG). Level S is the fifth in a series of Probabilistic Code Intercomparison (PSACOIN) exercises designed to contribute to the verification of probabilistic codes and methodologies that may be used in assessing the safety of radioactive waste disposal systems and concepts. The focus of the Level S exercise lies on sensitivity analysis. Given a common data set of model output and input values the participants were asked to identify both the underlying model's most important parameters (deterministic sensitivity analysis) and the link between the distributions of the input and output values (distribution sensitivity analysis). Agreement was generally found where it was expected and the exercise has achieved its objectives in acting as a focus for testing and discussing sensitivity analysis issues. Among the outstanding issues that have been identified are: (i) that techniques for distribution sensitivity analysis are needed that avoid the problem of statistical noise; (ii) that further investigations are warranted on the most appropriate way of handling large numbers of effectively zero results generated by Monte Carlo sampling; and (iii) that methods need to be developed for demonstrating that the results of sensitivity analysis are indeed correct