Assessment of dose-time-effect surfaces for somatic late effects after low dose irradiation

Awaiting new data from RERF, an attempt was made to estimate the somatic risks of low doses of radiation for members of the German public. The new estimate follows closely the approach used in deriving the values published in the NIH Radioepidemiological Tables. The lifetime risk factors thus calculated are significantly larger than the estimates presented in ICRP Report 26 and are consistent with estimates recently made in the ongoing reactor safety study of NUREG. The increase in lifetime risks is mainly due to the introduction of a new time projection model which appears to be more consistent with the epidemiological data for many late effect end points than the constant absolute risk model previously employed. Results from a study in which epidemiological data were stochastically simulated with a computer indicate that the shapes of actual dose effect curves might be significantly more influenced by pure chance than by the dose dependency of underlying biological mechanisms