How to forecast nuclear plant construction time

A cumulative probability distribution curve is described which can help planners estimate the construction time for nuclear power plants. Accumulated construction data published by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in Construction Status Report - Nuclear Power Plants is the basis for the curves. A case for both optimism and pessimism in lead times can be argued, but a probability curve can be drawn by monitoring construction duration trends and forming a histogram on which to base cumulative probability. The curve can be adapted to project the time for a project already in progress. 6 figures