The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway

Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production. The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system. This paper presents long-term projections of the Norwegian energy demand as a two-step methodology of first using activities and intensities to calculate a demand of energy services, and secondly use this as input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway to optimize the Norwegian energy system. Long-term energy demand projections are uncertain and the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact of different projections on the energy system. The results of the analyses show that decreased energy demand results in a higher renewable fraction compared to an increased demand, and the renewable energy production increases with increased energy demand. The most profitable solution to cover increased demand is to increase the use of bio energy and to implement energy efficiency measures. To increase the wind power production, an increased renewable target or higher electricity export prices have to be fulfilled, in combination with more electricity export. - Highlights: • Projections to 2050 of Norwegian energy demand services, carriers and technologies. • Energy demand services calculated based on intensities and activities. • Energy carriers and technologies analysed by TIMES-Norway. • High renewable target results in more wind power production and electricity export. • Increased energy efficiency is important for a high renewable fraction