Estimates of radiation dose to the Australian population as a result of exposure to fallout from the French and the Chinese nuclear bomb tests over the period 1964-1972 and assessments of the adverse effects on public health

Measurements of fallout levels in Australia up to 1971 are reviewed and used to estimate Australian average individual dose commitments. An alternative set of numbers is given based on the most recent figures for global average dose commitments provided by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. The two sets of numbers show reasonable agreement; the larger are adopted for use in estimating adverse effects. The contribution of the French and Chinese weapons tests relative to that from all tests is derived by inspection and extrapolation where necessary of data on the injection of strontium-90 into the northern and southern hemispheres and its subsequent deposition as a function of time. The risk data reviewed and summarised in the 1972 UNSCEAR and BEIR reports are used to derive estimates of adverse effects. It is concluded that the French and Chinese test series to the end of 1972 may be responsible over the next 20 years for up to 1.4 and 0.2 cases of cancer per year respectively in Australia. Of these cases, 0.25 per year would be leukaemia, 0.75 per year thyroid cancer and 0.6 per year all other forms. Available evidence on the mutagenic effects of radiation suggests that the total number of cases of severe genetic diseases produced may be of the same order as the total number of cases of cancer, with the former spread over many generations whereas the latter are not. (author)