Time course and predictive factors for lung volume reduction following stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) of lung tumors

Stereotactic ablative volume reduction (SAVR) is a potential alternative to lung-volume reduction surgery in patients with severe emphysema and excessive surgical risk. Having previously observed a dose-volume response for localized lobar volume reduction after stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for lung tumors, we investigated the time course and factors associated with volume reduction. We retrospectively identified 70 eligible patients receiving lung tumor SABR during 2007-2013. We correlated lobar volume reduction (relative to total, bilateral lung volume [TLV]) with volume receiving high biologically effective doses (V_XXBED3) and other pre-treatment factors in all patients, and measured the time course of volume changes on 3-month interval CT scans in patients with large V_60BED3 (n = 21, V_60BED3 ≥4.1 % TLV). Median CT follow-up was 15 months. Median volume reduction of treated lobes was 4.5 % of TLV (range 0.01–13.0 %), or ~9 % of ipsilateral lung volume (ILV); median expansion of non-target adjacent lobes was 2.2 % TLV (−4.6–9.9 %; ~4 % ILV). Treated lobe volume reduction was significantly greater with larger V_XXBED3 (XX = 20–100 Gy, R² = 0.52–0.55, p < 0.0001) and smaller with lower pre-treatment FEV1% (R² = 0.11, p = 0.005) in a multivariable linear model. Maximum volume reduction was reached by ~12 months and persisted. We identified a multivariable model for lobar volume reduction after SABR incorporating dose-volume and pre-treatment FEV1% and characterized its time course. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13014-016-0616-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users