Statistical analysis employed in IAEA safeguards

The paper discusses the various areas in which statistical methods apply to nuclear materials accountancy safeguards. These methods relate in one way or another to the most basic accountancy data created by the inspector - the measured amount of nuclear material in a specially selected item. This value is then compared with the operator's declared value and inferences are drawn on the state of control based on the individual difference and on the accumulated operator-inspector difference. Major aspects of the problem that are considered include the inspection sampling plans, material balance evaluations, near real time accountancy, and estimation of measurement error parameters. The focus is on improvements made in statistical methodology within the past two years, and on the current situation with respect to evaluating such improvements and incorporating them into the statistical package of techniques in used at the IAEA. (author). 4 refs