Japan's refiner/marketers headed for major shakeout

Japan's downstream oil industry is in a state of crisis and headed for a major shakeout. The major catalyst for this was a dramatic deregulation step during April 1996 that allowed refined petroleum product imports by non-refiners. The move, together with a sharp drop in refining margins, falling retail gasoline prices, and a service station sector on the brink of collapse, are all leading to massive changes in the way the country's refiners and marketers do business. This paper reviews the collapse of corporate profits during this period of deregulation; the development of a new price system geared toward bringing the prices of gasoline, fuel oil, and kerosene into line with each other to offset the fall in gasoline prices; and industry restructuring including mergers, acquisitions, and marketing consolidation. The paper then makes predictions on the outcome of these changes on the Japanese oil industry