Industrial energy policy: a case study of demand in Kuwait

The purpose behind building the industrial energy demand model was to enable assessment of the impact of potential policy options and to forecast future energy demand under various assumptions, including the impact of the possible removal of energy subsidies in accordance with the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement. The results of the model, based on three scenarios, underline several important issues: With nominal energy prices staying the same (the status quo) and with inflation and economic growth continuing to expand (i.e. baseline scenario), it is expected that industrial demand will grow. In this sector, energy consumption is projected to grow at an annual growth rate of about 3.5 per cent throughout the forecast period. In the moderate scenario, however, this drops to 1.9 per cent and when all energy subsidies are removed as in the case of the extreme scenario, the energy consumption is projected to grow by only 1.5 per cent annually throughout the same period. Moreover, with regards to inter-fuel substitution, the model forecast indicates that electricity and natural gas consumption will decline, while the consumption of oil products will increase in all scenarios. The results of the model also indicate that the changing price structure of energy resources should be done in a comprehensive manner. In other words, electricity prices should be adjusted upwards instantly with the adjustment of oil products' prices and natural gas otherwise, a massive inter-fuel substitution will occur within the various consuming industries. (author)