Strategies for sustainable development of the Polish electric power system

The key features of sustainable development of the Polish electric power industry are discussed. Priorities and limitations for changes and power demand forecasts are described. Results of least-cost planning for existing power plants' modernization and generation expansion with environmental impacts are presented. The least-cost strategy is given by the optimal upgrades of older plants until year 2002 and by expansion of gas-fired units. The limited availability of gas after 2010 will lead to the construction of new coal-fired plants. For the next planning process, an integrated resource planning methodology is proposed, which includes dynamic optimization of supply and demand side options. Innovative mechanisms are shown to overcome barriers of development like long-terms contracts and decentralization of the power system planning process. (author)