Application of spatial analysis to investigate contribution of VOCs to photochemical ozone creation

This study was concerned with the temporal analysis of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes (BTEXs), and ozone in Rochester, New York, between 2012 and 2018. Additionally, the influence of ozone precursors (e.g., BTEXs and NO₂) and meteorological variables (e.g., relative humidity (RH), temperature along with wind speed) on ozone dispersion was investigated in the eastern half of the USA using the integrated nested Laplace approximation and stochastic partial differential equation (INLA-SPDE). The benzene variability at seasonal scale was characterized by higher values during the cold seasons. On the contrary, the long-term temporal trend of ozone depicted a repetitive cyclic behavior while an episode, with values exceeding 5 μg/m³, was detected associated with benzene in 2015. The spatial analysis by INLA-SPDE indicated that 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene and benzene were the key ozone precursors influencing ozone formation. It was demonstrated that increase of temperature had a considerable impact on ozone build-up whereas the increment of RH leads to decrease in ambient values of ozone. The amounts of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and bias for the validation data (e.g., 32 samples) were 0.005, 0.004, and 0.0008, exhibiting a reasonable out-of-sample forecasting by the INLA-SPDE model. The distribution map of ozone highlighted a hot spot in the state of Florida.