An extensive evaluation of wind resource using new methods and strategies for development and utilizing wind power in Mah-shahr station in Iran

Highlights: • In this research, results suggest that the Weibull distribution is the best function to model the wind data in Mah-shahr. • The compatibility of the wind data with three methods of estimating Weibull parameters was assessed. • An extreme analysis of wind in Mah-shahr was done to determine the maximum gust wind speeds over a 50-year return period. • An extensive economic evaluation of installing a wind park was performed on RETScreen® software. - Abstract: In this study, the 10-min period measured short-term wind speed data at 10 m and 40 m heights for Mah-shahr station in Iran was statistically analyzed to determine the potential of wind power generation. In addition in this paper different distribution functions are compared to each other in order to find the best distribution in Mah-shahr which is compatible with the wind data. It is found that the Weibull distribution is the best function to model the wind data in Mah-shahr. It should also be mentioned that the different methods for calculating Weibull parameters were used and compared to each other. Moreover an extreme analysis of wind data in Mah-shahr was carried out to determine the maximum gust wind speed over a 50-year return period (Ve50). Using the method of "periodic maxima" for analysis of extreme winds, it was revealed that the 50-year wind speed at 80 m in Mah-shahr which is 39.5 m/s is lower than usual values of Ve50 limits for different wind turbines. This means that the risk of extreme wind gusts in Mah-shahr might not be a problem for installation of wind turbines. From the primary evaluation of wind data in Mah-shahr it is found the studied site has an acceptable potential of wind power for electricity generation. Energy production of different wind turbines at different heights is determined. Then a simple economic evaluation carried out to determine whether studied site is suitable for development of commercial or small and residential wind turbines. It became clear that the "Nordex N100/2500" with a rated power of 2500 kW has the lowest price of electricity and has a high level of capacity factor. Thus in the second phase of the study an extensive economic evaluation of installing 10 MW wind park using 4 Nordex N100/2500 wind turbines was performed on the RETScreen® international simulation software. For this purpose, four main scenarios have been taken into consideration. It was revealed that in the second scenario by assumption of the new proposed feed-in-tariff rate (4400 rials), the return period of investment was significantly reduced. It has been demonstrated that the government's new policy for increasing the feed-in-tariff rate has been very effective for improving the financial viability of the proposed wind farm. In the final steps, effects of the clean development strategies have been taken into account