A population projection study of Japanese cancer patients requiring treatment by radiotherapy for the year 2000 A.D

The Japanese incidence in the absolute number of cancers is rapidly rising due to an increase in the older population and a change in the pattern of cancers being detected. Annual incidence rates for stomach and uterine cervix cancers have been steadily decreasing, whereas lung, breast, and colo-rectal cancers have tended to increase. Treatment by radiotherapy has also affected by the cancer incidence. To determine the future outlook, the authors have estimated the annual cancer incidence for each anatomic site by using the population projection of Japan, and also have estimated the cancer incidence rates for the year 2000. Their forecast has indicated that the absolute number of Japanese cancer patients is expected to be about 490,000 at the year 2000, in contrast to 290,000 for the year 1985, and that number of patients treated with radiotherapy will be about 215,000 at the year 2000, compared to 100,000 for the year 1985, and that most patients will be receiving radiotherapy for lung cancer. Thus, they feel that medical man power and clinical equipment for cancer therapy must be allocated in the most efficient way to meet the demands of the 21st Century, during which radiotherapy is expected to play a far more important role than it does today. (author)