Impact of landscape pattern changes on hydrological ecosystem services in the Beressa watershed of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia

Highlights: • The provision of hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) changed over time. • Water yield and sediment export increased across the study years. • HESs correlated well with landscape characteristics. • Landscape pattern affects the regulating capacity of the ecosystem. • The composition of farmland and plantation contributes more to the reduction of HESs. Landscape pattern changes are mostly due to human activities, and such changes often affect ecosystem functions and services. This study was conducted to evaluate the response of hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) to structural landscape changes. Spatiotemporal changes in two specific HES indicators, water yield (WY) and sediment export (SE), were quantified by analyzing historic (1972–2017) and projected land use/land cover changes (2017–2047). The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Model was used for this purpose. Results indicated that WY and SE changed significantly (p 0.01) during the study period. The total WY and SE increased by 30.29% and 98.69%, respectively, between 1972 and 2017. Analysis of the projections for the next three decades (2017–2047) suggested an increase in WY and SE by 4.8% and 93.11%, respectively. Furthermore, results revealed that WY and SE are strongly influenced by landscape composition, and metrics such as percentage of landscape (PLAND), mean patch size (MPS), and large patch index (LPI) of farmland and plantations were found to be key factors affecting HESs degradation in the Beressa watershed. PLAND (VIP = 1.34; w = 0.55; and VIP = 1.32; w = 0.56) and MPS (VIP = 1.32; w = 0.50 and VIP = 1.31; w = 0.56)) of farmland cover contributed most to the changes in WY and SE, respectively. Similarly, PLAND (VIP = 1.33; w = 0.54 and VIP = 1.28; w = 0.52), LPI (VIP = 1.27; w = 0.52 and VIP = 1.30; w = 0.54) and MPS (VIP = 1.29; w = 0.52) of plantation cover also contributed more to the change in WY and SE. Besides that, of anthropogenic factors, compositions of natural vegetation and grassland cover were found to heavily influence HESs in the watershed studied. The findings of the study suggest that soil and water conservation interventions are vital to minimize and control water-related problems and enhance ESs.