Energy systems [Part I]

Rapid increase in energy utilization has created the energy problem for tackling which it is necessary to adopt a systems approach. The components of any energy system are: its (i) production (ii) handling and (iii) embedding into global and social complex. For proper understanding of the energy problem, three overlapping time phases are considered: (1) the short range phase 1970-1985 (2) the medium range phase 1980-1995 and (3) the long range phase 1990-2050, each of which will be characterised by the utilization of particular sources of energy in a certain pattern which is described. The role of nuclear power in relation to other sources of energy is outlined. Sensing, optimization and forecasting are the three aspects of modelling of energy demand and supply, which are discussed in detail. Estimates of: (i) known and unknown reserves of fossil fuel and nuclear fuels in terms of uranium and thorium deposits and (ii) lithium and deuterium resources in view of the feasibility of fusion power are given. Besides nuclear power either by fission or fusion, the other options for the large-scale supply of energy (i.e. a few Q/year for a thousand year or much more) are: (i) geothermal sources and (ii) solar power, of which the feasibility is discussed. (M.G.B.)