Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the early waste package failure scenario class and the early drip shield failure scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) engineered barrier system conditions, (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository, and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA. - Highlights: • We describe uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 YM PA. • Analyses employ Latin hypercube sampling, stepwise rank regression and partial rank correlation coefficients. • We present results for engineered barrier system conditions, radionuclide releases and expected dose