An empirical model to estimate ammonia emission from cropland fertilization in China

Highlights: • A empirical model of NH₃ emissions from croplands was established. • Two emission peaks are found in April and October following the fertilization. • Total emission was estimated at 4.3 Tg NH₃ yr⁻¹ in 2017 with an emission factor of 12%. • More emission hotspots were found in South China due to warming climate. Ammonia (NH₃) volatilization is one of the main pathways of nitrogen loss from cropland, resulting not only in economic losses, but also environmental and human health impacts. The magnitude and timing of NH₃ emissions from cropland fertilizer application highly depends on agricultural practices, climate and soil factors, which previous studies have typically only considered at coarse spatio-temporal resolution. In this paper, we describe a first highly detailed empirical regression model for ammonia (ERMA) emissions based on 1443 field observations across China. This model is applied at county level by integrating data with unprecedented high spatio-temporal resolution of agricultural practices and climate and soil factors. Results showed that total NH₃ emissions from cropland fertilizer application amount to 4.3 Tg NH₃ yr⁻¹ in 2017 with an overall NH₃ emission factor of 12%. Agricultural production for vegetables, maize and rice are the three largest emitters. Compared to previous studies, more emission hotspots were found in South China and temporally, emission peaks are estimated to occur three months earlier in the year, while the total amount of emissions is estimated to be close to that calculated by previous studies. A second emission peak is identified in October, most likely related to the fertilization of the second crop in autumn. Incorporating these new findings on NH₃ emission patterns will enable a better parametrization of models and hence improve the modelling of air quality and subsequent impacts on ecosystems through reactive N deposition.