MCNP multiplication analysis of subcritical HEU experiments

A series of measurements and improvements to computational techniques was described in Ref. 1 that were aimed at better understanding the determination of the reactivity of subcritical systems from measurements of the multiplying characteristics of the system. This methodology has been applied to a number of the bare highly enriched uranium (HEU) measurements (simulating 0.5- to 21.5-kg balls with nesting shells) of Ref. 2, demonstrating that the experimental multiplication results can be reproduced computationally with good accuracy. This capability promises to improve special nuclear material (SNM) assays of unknown systems such as those encountered in SNM safeguards, arms-control verification, imports of foreign-generated SNM, smuggling of SNM, etc. Improved techniques and understanding are needed since traditionally measured or calculated multiplications are not always an invariant characteristic of a subcritical system, especially if one has an SNM system with no significant intrinsic internal neutron source that is illuminated nonuniformly with an external source (i.e., a nonnormal mode system). The measurement techniques used in Refs. 1 and 2 to determine multiplication are based on the Feynman variance-to-mean method, which has been previously documented in Refs. 3 and 4 and applied successfully to normal mode systems such as plutonium and uranium spheres. These techniques have been applied to nonnormal mode problems with less success, and both Refs. 1 and 2 as well as the current paper are attempts to better understand the subcritical multiplication of such systems