On the theory of polar ozone holes

The viable theories already proposed to explain polar ozone holes generally fall into two main categories, namely, chemical theories and dynamical theories. In both of these categories, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are taken as part of the essential basis. Besides, all the dynamical theories are based upon temperature changes. Since formation of the PSCs is highly temperature-dependent, it has been concluded from recent research (e.g. see Kawahira and Hirooka) that temperature changes are a cause, not a result of ozone depletion in polar regions. On this basis, formulations are developed that represent short-term and long-term temperature variations in the polar regions due to natural processes. These variations, which are confined to a limited area around each pole, include specific oscillations with periods ranging from ∼ 2 years up to ∼ 218,597 years. Polar ozone variations are normally expected to be influenced by these temperature oscillations. It is, therefore, apparent that the generally decreasing trend observed in mean October ozone column at Halley Bay (76 deg. S, 27 deg. W) from 1956 up to 1987 is mostly caused by the decreasing phase of a combination of two natural temperature oscillations, one with a period of ∼ 70-80 years and the other with a period of ∼ 160-180 years. Contributions of other natural temperature oscillations are also mentioned and briefly discussed. (author). 35 refs, 4 figs