The Process-Oriented Simulation (POS) model for common cause failures: recent progress

A common-cause failure (CCF) model based on stochastic simulation has been developed to complement the established approaches and to overcome some of their shortcomings. Reflecting the models proximity to the CCF process it was called Process Oriented Simulation (POS) Model. In recent years, some progress has been made to render the POS model fit for practical applications comprising the development of parameter estimates and a number of test applications in areas where results were already available - especially from CCF benchmarks - and comparison can provide insights in strong and weak points of the different approaches. In this paper, a detailed description of the POS model is provided together with the approach to parameter estimation and representative test applications. It is concluded, that the POS model has a number of strengths - especially the feature to provide reasonable extrapolation to CCF groups with high degrees of redundancy - and thus a considerable potential to complement the insights obtained from existing modeling. (orig.)