Consideration for modelling studies of migration of accidentally released radionuclides in a river watershed

Concerning radionuclides that might be released in an event of an accident from a nuclear facility, much attention has been paid to the migration pathways including the atmospheric deposition and subsequent inflow to surface water bodies since the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986. In European countries, computer-coded systems for predicting the migration including those pathways and providing scientific supports for decision makers to manage the contamination have been developed. This report is a summary of presentations and discussion made at the occasion of the visit of Dr. Monte in order to have directions related to the current subject of research, development of a mathematical model of the behavior of radionuclides in a river watershed. Those presentations and discussions were made at JAERI and also at prominent universities and institutes of Japan involved in this study field. As a result of these discussions, distinct advantages and key issues in use of a mathematical model for prediction of the migration of radionuclides in a river watershed have been identified and analyzed. It was confirmed that the use of mathematical modeling has distinct advantages. Re-arrangement of the existing experimental knowledge on the environment in an ordered way according to a theory (a mathematical model) will lead to a new angle to consider a problem in that environment, despite several gaps in the data array. A model to assess the radionuclide behaviour in contaminated aquatic ecosystems is a basis of decision analysis tools for helping decision-makers to select the most appropriate intervention strategies for the ecosystems. Practical use of a mathematical model and continuous effort in its validation were recognized as crucial. (author)