Consensus estimation study of nuclear power plant structural loads

For safety evaluation of seismic category I nuclear structures, probabilistic characteristics of the actual loads acting on the structures are needed. A study was conducted to determine the probabilistic characteristics of the operational and accidental loads using the consensus estimation technique. A study committee on nuclear power plant stuctural loads was formed and experts in the nucelar industry were invited to participate. The consensus study was carried out using two round of questionnaires. The responses to the second round questionnaire were statistically evaluated and the results are documented in this report. The results are judged to be tentative because of the limited numbers of responses for each category of the load surveyed. Since very little probabilistic load data exists in the literature, the consensus study results supplemented with judgements should be of considerable value in the probability-based reliability analysis of nuclear structures