A study on the future nuclear power development strategy in Korea

The future energy demand has been forecasted by demand sectors and by supply sources, mainly as a function of GNP growth by using the multi-regressional method. It is assumed that the nuclear power will be the major power generation source in Korea, supplying more than 20 % of total energy demand by the year 2000, regardless of future GNP growth rates. The installed capacity of nuclear power plants will reach from current 7 % (600 MWe) to over 34 % (11,000 - 17,000 MWe) and 60 % (30,000 - 48,000 MWe) by 1991 and 2000, respectively. For low economic growth 13 and 31 nuclear units are predicted for operation by 1991 and 2000, respectively, while 18 and 44 units are predicted for high growth. The alternative reactor scenarios for both low and high nuclear power growth have been analyzed in respect to total nuclear investment costs, availability of fuel cycles, nuclear safety features, and domestic manufacturing and engineering capabilities. Two types of thermal reactors (i.e. PWR and CANDU-HWR), which are currently being introduced into Korea, and the plutonium-cycle LMFBR are being considered as reactor candidates in this strategic analysis. Introduction of the commercial FBR is assumed only when enough fissionable material for core loading is available from domestic nuclear spent fuel. CANDU spent fuel is not considered for recycling before 2000. As a result of the study, recommendations for future nuclear policy on reactor strategy along with nuclear fuel cycles, manpower and technology development have been made. (author)