Seismic analysis - what goal

The seismic analysis of nuclear components is characterized today by extensive engineering computer calculations in order to satisfy both the component standard codes such as ASME III as well as federal regulations and guides. The current nuclear siesmic design procedure has envolved in a fragmented fashion and continues to change its elements as improved technology leads to changing standards and guides. The dominant trend is a monotonic increase in the overall conservation with time causing a similar trend in costs of nuclear power plants. Ironically the improvements in the state of art are feeding a process which is eroding the very incentives that attracted us to nuclear power in the first place. This paper examines the cause of this process and suggests that what is needed is a realistic goal which appropriately addresses the overall uncertainty of the seismic design process. (Auth.)