Critique of and Limitations on the Use of Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis (invited paper)

Accident consequence models are designed primarily to be used in support of siting and licensing decisions. To use these models, the analyst inevitably requires some input from experts. Equally, to understand the implication of the models, the analyst needs to explore their sensitivity to the inputs and uncertainty analysis is a key tool in doing this. In this paper, the interplay between these two aspects of the use of accident consequence models is considered, paying particular attention to issues and limitations that require further research in the coming years. (author)