Understanding the timing and variation of greenhouse gas emissions of forest bioenergy systems

Highlights: • Net GHG balance shows GHG reduction potential of forest bioenergy is limited. • Results are dependent on methods, system boundaries and reference system. • Mitigation potential depends on forest management and whole forest product basket. • Multi-level governance framework require to track wider impacts of forest bioenergy. -- Abstract: Forest-based bioenergy plays an important role in climate mitigation for limiting global mean temperature increase to below 2 °C. The greenhouse gas (GHG) impact of three forest-based bioenergy systems from the USA, Canada and Spain supplying wood pellets for electricity in the UK were evaluated by conducting lifecycle assessments and forest carbon modelling of the three forest systems. Cumulative emissions were analysed by calculating the forest carbon stock change and net GHG emissions balance of the forest-based bioenergy electricity. The analysis considered both the replacement of the existing electricity mix with bioenergy electricity and forest management with and without bioenergy use. The supply chain emissions and forest carbon balances indicated that GHG emission reductions are possible. However, the cumulative net GHG balance at forest landscape scale revealed that the reduction potential is limited, potentially with no GHG reductions in fast growing forests with shorter rotations, while slow growing forest systems with longer rotations result in greater GHG reductions. This means that the maximum climate benefit is delivered at a different point in time for different forest systems. To evaluate the climate change mitigation potential of forest-based bioenergy it is therefore necessary to consider the management, utilisation and relevant counterfactual of the whole forest and its products. In terms of climate change mitigation potential and minimising possible negative impacts that would require multi-level governance.