Illicit trafficking - The nature of the trade

Full text: The scope of the paper is on the nature of trade in illicit nuclear and radiological material. The paper draws on open source and IAEA data. It is an unclassified paper that draws on the above sources and does not represent the full extent of the United Kingdom's analysis on the subject. The discussion focuses on the intent that international terrorist groups have to acquire nuclear and radiological materials, and to deploy them in the form of radiological dispersal devices or improvised nuclear devices. The paper explores to what extent this intent drives and shapes the market for these materials. It uses IAEA data and current open source material to illustrate the availability and potential reservoir of sources that are available to traffickers and, from them - potentially - to terrorist groups. It combines this data with information from seizures to illustrate the supply side factors which shape the market. In relation to trafficking, the paper explores what we currently can assess from the IAEA and open source data, and makes judgements on the nature of the trade, and how individual nations should use this to inform the level and type of detection capability that they deploy. The paper also explores what further information or data sets would assist the analysis and interpretation of this trade. (author)